Venezuela’s oil collapse is plunging cuba into crisis
Cuba is facing a severe national emergency as the collapse of its long-standing oil-for-services arrangement with Venezuela has crippled the island's energy grid and economy.
Key Drivers of the 2026 Crisis
- Total Loss of Venezuelan Oil: Following the U.S. military operation in early January 2026 that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the "oil spigot" from Venezuela to Cuba has been effectively shut off.
- Energy Infrastructure Collapse: Without Venezuelan crude, which historically covered up to half of Cuba’s energy needs, the island's decrepit power plants are failing. By late January 2026, blackouts outside Havana have reached an average of 20 hours per day.
- Economic Isolation: Cuba lacks the foreign exchange to purchase oil at market prices on the international market. This is exacerbated by the U.S. "State Sponsor of Terrorism" designation, which continues to block access to global financial systems.
- Population Decline: The worsening conditions have fueled a historic exodus. Approximately 2.75 million people (nearly 25% of the population) have left Cuba since 2020, with current estimates suggesting the population has fallen below 9 million.
Efforts to Mitigate the Shortfall
Cuba is attempting to secure alternative fuel sources, though these remain insufficient:
- Mexico: Currently Cuba’s most vital supplier, though shipments have fluctuated. Mexico was sending roughly 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 but recently reduced this to approximately 7,000 bpd to avoid U.S. diplomatic friction.
- Russia: Continues to provide limited support, supplying roughly 10,000 bpd, far below the volume needed to stabilize the grid.
- U.S. Demands: President Trump has signaled that any future oil flows from Venezuela to Cuba would require Havana to sign a new agreement with Washington, a demand the Cuban government has thus far rejected as an affront to its sovereignty.
Current Impact on Daily Life
- Health and Food: Hospitals are operating with minimal resources, often requiring patients to provide their own medical supplies. Food shortages have worsened as transportation for distribution has halted.
- Tourism Decline: Tourism, once a primary source of hard currency, has failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels, further draining the government’s ability to import basic goods.
Download Pdf
