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GST 2.0 is having a tangible disinflationary effect on India's economy, with authorities and analysts highlighting several key outcomes.
 
RBI, Government, and Analyst Views

• The Reserve Bank of India stated that the rate cuts under GST 2.0 are leading to lower CPI prices, curbing inflation, and stimulating both consumption and growth.
• The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee revised its FY26 inflation projection down to 2.6% from 3.1% in August, attributing the reduction to GST reforms and benign food prices.
• The Finance Ministry has echoed these sentiments, stating that the GST reforms are expected to lower inflation over the next year and support stronger growth while emphasizing continued vigilance against global risks.

Direct Consumer Impact and Enforcement

• The new two-slab GST regime (5% and 18%), implemented from September 22, 2025, has resulted in price reductions for a wide array of daily-use items, with about 11.4% of the CPI basket affected.
• Government agencies are closely monitoring retailers to ensure the benefits of GST cuts are being passed on to consumers, with special scrutiny on e-commerce platforms.
• Despite these positives, certain reports have highlighted that benefits may not be immediately or fully passed through in some sectors due to input tax credit changes and market rigidities.
• The GST rationalization, alongside favorable agricultural factors, is expected to keep food inflation contained and support lower headline inflation through 2026.

Economic and Policy Outlook

• Economists predict that lower GST rates will have a higher fiscal multiplier, encouraging private consumption and aiding economic recovery, particularly in rural and lower-income segments.
• However, the RBI and Finance Ministry caution that global volatility, trade disruptions, and commodity price changes remain risks to the inflation outlook despite the relief offered by GST 2.0.
• Immediate short-term inflation readings are substantially lower, with September-October 2025 CPI reportedly as low as 1.1% in some estimates, the lowest since 2004.

Economic Projections
 

Projection	Previous CPI (FY26)	New CPI (FY26)	GDP Growth (FY26)
RBI Estimate	3.1%	2.6%	6.8%
CareEdge	3.1%	2.7%	–

 
GST 2.0 is widely viewed as inflation-moderating, consumption-boosting, and likely to provide a sustained check on price levels in India through direct and indirect channels.

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