OPEC and its expanded alliance, OPEC+, are currently in the process of increasing oil production after years of major output cuts. At their upcoming October 5, 2025 meeting, OPEC+ is widely expected to approve another production hike of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November, mirroring the increase already scheduled for October.
Recent Production Changes

• Since April 2025, OPEC+ has started unwinding its previous deep output cuts, following a strategy aimed at regaining global market share while attempting to stabilize oil prices around the $60–$70 per barrel range.
• The largest output hike this year was 555,000 barrels per day, seen in August and September, with smaller increases (137,000 bpd each) planned for October and November as the group proceeds cautiously.
• The United Arab Emirates received special permission to increase its own production by 300,000 barrels per day between April and September 2025.

Supply Cuts and Unwinding Timeline

• OPEC+ had peak cuts of 5.85 million barrels per day, made up of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary reductions, another 1.65 million bpd from eight members, and 2 million bpd from the entire coalition.
• The first layer of 2.2 million bpd is set to be fully unwound by September’s end, with the second layer of 1.65 million bpd being gradually restored in increments, now reaching 137,000 bpd per month.
• The final group-wide cut of 2 million bpd is scheduled to remain in effect until end-2026, ensuring some supply restraint stays in place.

Market Reactions

• Oil prices have slipped slightly in recent days on the expectation of growing supply, but remain above $70 per barrel, partly due to disruptions in Russian exports from geopolitical tensions.
• Analysts observe that actual OPEC+ output hikes often lag behind official pledges because many members are near their production capacity.

Geopolitical and Policy Drivers

• The group’s production changes have been influenced by global diplomatic pressure, especially from President Donald Trump, who wants lower energy prices to curb inflation.
• Additional supply is meant to manage revenue for member states and keep market share as global demand recovers moderately post-pandemic.

In summary, OPEC+ is cautiously increasing oil production, with the next output hike decision set for October 5, 2025, targeting at least an additional 137,000 bpd for November as they value price stability while aiming to regain lost market share.

About OPEC and OPEC+

OPEC is an official intergovernmental organization of 12 oil-exporting countries, while OPEC+ is a broader, ad hoc coalition that includes OPEC members along with 10 major non-OPEC oil producers, such as Russia. OPEC+ was formed to expand cooperation and better influence the global oil market, particularly following the rise of competing oil sources like U.S. shale. 

Key differences

Feature	OPEC	OPEC+
Membership	A formal, intergovernmental organization of 12 member countries.	Includes the 12 OPEC members plus 10 non-OPEC oil exporters.
Founding	Founded in Baghdad, Iraq, in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.	Formed in late 2016 as an alliance between OPEC and other oil-producing nations.
Purpose	To coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries and stabilize oil markets.	To manage the global oil market more effectively by incorporating major non-OPEC producers.
Key non-OPEC members	Not applicable	Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Oman, South Sudan, and Sudan.
Market share	Controls a significant share of global oil reserves, but OPEC+ has a larger influence over global production levels.	Controls a larger percentage of global oil production, giving it more influence over international oil prices.
Influence	While influential, its power can be challenged by market developments like the rise of non-OPEC producers.	Has a stronger and broader market influence due to its larger share of global oil supply.

How they influence oil prices
Both groups attempt to manage global oil prices by controlling supply, typically through coordinated production cuts or increases based on market conditions. 

• Production cuts: When global oil prices are too low, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, OPEC+ has agreed to significant production cuts to limit supply and raise prices. For example, a large production cut by OPEC+ was announced in October 2022 to boost prices amid recession concerns.
• Production increases: Conversely, if the price of oil is too high, OPEC+ can boost supply to prevent negative impacts on the global economy.
• Challenges to influence: The group's ability to control prices is not absolute. Factors such as disagreements among members over production quotas, the rise of competitors like U.S. shale oil, and shifts toward renewable energy can limit their market power over the long term. 

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