India - US Relation- Dual Track dynamics
Context
- The Quad Leaders’ Summit, which India was supposed to host, was postponed amid diplomatic tensions.
- U.S. trade sanctions on Indian goods and Washington’s warming ties with Pakistan have created friction.
- India is recalibrating its diplomatic posture in response to perceptions of a U.S.-China rapprochement (“G-2” style).
- Defense cooperation remains the backbone of bilateral resilience.
- Technology partnerships, including critical and emerging tech, continue to deepen.
Political and Economic Frictions
- US President Trump's claim of mediating the 2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire after Operation Sindoor, rejected by India as no US role occurred.
- Postponement of India's hosted Quad Leaders’ Summit and cancellation of the annual 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue.
- Renewed US-China engagement and US concessions to Pakistan, including port access and minerals, amid India's strained Pakistan ties.
- US criticism of India's BRICS participation and deepening Russia ties, seen as interference in strategic autonomy.
- Imposition of 50% US tariffs on Indian exports (25% reciprocal + 25% penalty for Russian oil imports), effective August 2025, hitting textiles, steel, gems, and machinery.
- Sharp decline in India's US exports initially, contrasting with favorable US terms for China (larger Russian oil buyer).
- Collapse of bilateral trade deal negotiations and threats to US firms manufacturing in India under "Make in India."
- US threats of secondary sanctions on Russian oil purchases, despite India's energy security needs.
Institutional and Multilateral Engagement
- Bureaucratic and military coordination intensified, offsetting leadership uncertainties through policy continuity.
- LEMOA (2016) enables logistics exchanges; COMCASA (2018) secures communications; BECA (2020) shares geospatial intel; SOSA (2024) safeguards supply chains.
- 10-year Defence Framework Agreement (October 2025, Kuala Lumpur): Signed by Defence Ministers Rajnath Singh and Pete Hegseth, it unifies policy for coordination, info sharing, tech collaboration, Indo-Pacific stability.
- HAL's $1 billion GE-414 fighter jet engine deal (November 2025) marks industrial milestone.
- Regular joint exercises: Yudh Abhyas (army), Malabar (navy), Tiger Claw (air).
- INDUS-X (2023) drives defense innovation partnerships.
- Quad Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue (July 2025) advances maritime security, economic ties, critical tech, humanitarian aid.
- Third Quad Counterterrorism Working Group meeting reinforces operational focus.
- Inaugural Quad Ports of the Future Conference (Mumbai, November 2025) with 24 Indo-Pacific ports for resilient infrastructure.
- NASA-ISRO NISAR satellite launch (July 2025) aids disaster management, agriculture, earth observation.
- iCET and COMPACT initiatives expand AI, clean energy, defense co-production like Javelin missiles, P-8I aircraft.
Conclusion
The trajectory of U.S.-India relations in 2025–26 reflects a dual-track dynamic: political and economic frictions on one side, and sustained defence, technological, and multilateral cooperation on the other.
- Political & Economic Strains: Tariffs, visa restrictions, and Washington’s recalibrated ties with Pakistan have created mistrust and slowed high-level diplomacy.
- Institutional Resilience: Defence cooperation remains the cornerstone, ensuring continuity through joint exercises, foundational agreements, and maritime security collaboration.
- Expanding Pillars: Technological and industrial partnerships—especially in semiconductors, AI, clean energy, and defence co-production—are rapidly becoming the second stabilizing force.
- Multilateral Engagement: Frameworks like the Quad, G20, and Indo-Pacific dialogues sustain momentum, embedding the relationship in broader strategic architectures.
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