Why in News?
The Southwest Monsoon is in the news because the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first long-range forecast for 2026 on April 13, 2026.
About
- The agency has predicted a "below normal" monsoon for the first time in 11 years, primarily due to the looming threat of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
- Below Normal Forecast: The IMD has projected that India will receive only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall this year.
- El Niño Risk: Scientists expect El Niño conditions to develop during the monsoon season (June–September), which historically suppresses rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
- Economic Concerns: As the monsoon is the "lifeline" of India's economy, this forecast has raised immediate concerns regarding crop yields, food inflation, and rural demand.
- First in 11 Years: This is the first time since 2015 that the IMD has issued a "below normal" warning in its initial April forecast.
Quantitative Forecast
- Rainfall Estimate: Likely to be 92% of the LPA, with a model error of ±5%.
- LPA Definition: The benchmark LPA is 87 cm, based on data from 1971–2020.
- Probability: There is a 35% probability of "deficient" rainfall (less than 90% of LPA) and a 31% probability of "below normal" rains.
Geographic Distribution (Spatial Spread)
- Deficient Areas: Large parts of Central and Northern India are expected to see below-normal rainfall.
- Normal Areas: Some regions in the Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India may still receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
Major Global Drivers
- El Niño: Current "ENSO-neutral" conditions are expected to shift to El Niño by July/August, potentially weakening the monsoon's second half.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A positive IOD is likely to develop towards the end of the season, which could help "counter" or offset some of El Niño's negative effects.
- Snow Cover: Eurasian and Northern Hemisphere snow cover (Jan–March 2026) was slightly below normal, which is generally a favourable factor for monsoon winds.
Timelines & Updates
- Onset: The monsoon typically hits the Kerala coast around June 1.
- Next Update: The IMD will issue an updated, more detailed forecast (including regional and monthly breakdowns) in the last week of May 2026.
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