Editorial-13/10/2026
Drought report: On southwest monsoon, drought in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh
India’s southwest monsoon has ended with a 12.6–13% rainfall deficit, leaving Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh facing one of the most serious drought episodes in recent years. Karnataka has declared 217 of its 240 taluks drought-hit, while Andhra Pradesh has declared drought in 388 mandals across 21 of its 28 districts. The Centre must respond swiftly and generously once its inter-ministerial assessment confirms the scale of loss; equally, both States must move beyond emergency relief and rebuild water security for a climate era in which rainfall failure is becoming more frequent and more uneven.
A weak monsoon, not merely a dry spell
The southwest monsoon supplies nearly three-fourths of India’s annual precipitation, so its performance determines not only kharif harvests but also drinking-water availability, reservoir storage, groundwater recharge and the prospects for the rabi season. This year, India received 759.4 mm of rainfall against a long-period average of 868.6 mm—a shortfall of 12.6%. It was the country’s weakest monsoon this century and among the lowest since 1901.
The national average conceals the severity of the regional failure. South peninsular India recorded rainfall about 27% below normal, while Karnataka’s principal subdivisions faced deficits of roughly 28–32%. Andhra Pradesh fared even worse: its June–August rainfall deficit was reported at 53.4%, an extraordinary failure for a State whose agriculture, drinking-water systems and reservoir operations are closely tied to the monsoon.
Drought is not simply “less rain.” It is a cumulative crisis of failed rainfall, depleted soil moisture, wilting crops, falling reservoir levels and shrinking groundwater. This year’s pattern was especially damaging because long dry spells occurred during critical crop-growth windows. Reports of two-to-three-week dry spells between July and September in parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh meant that even isolated showers could not compensate for the absence of timely, well-distributed rain.
Karnataka: a near-statewide emergency
Karnataka was the first State to declare drought this season, announcing 101 affected taluks on August 27; by October 2, the number had risen to 217 out of 240 taluks. The State recorded a 35% rainfall deficit between June and September—its worst southwest monsoon in 55 years.
The implications are severe. Rain-fed districts are facing failed sowing, poor germination and crop stress; irrigated areas face reduced canal supplies as reservoirs decline. Farmers have reported extensive crop losses, and the State has estimated crop damage of nearly ₹46,000 crore. Beyond agriculture, rural households face drinking-water shortages, fodder scarcity and rising distress migration.
Karnataka’s experience also illustrates why drought declarations matter. A formal declaration enables the State to seek assistance under the National Disaster Response Fund and to implement measures such as input subsidies, employment generation, fodder support, drinking-water tanker deployment and deferment of loan recovery. But declarations must be followed by rapid, transparent delivery. Delayed compensation after a crop failure can push small farmers further into debt and deepen rural distress.
Andhra Pradesh: a broad and severe shock
Andhra Pradesh declared drought on October 2 in 388 of its 688 mandals across 21 districts. Of these, 283 mandals were classified as severely affected and 105 as moderately affected. The declaration was based on indicators under the Union government’s Manual for Drought Management, 2016, following a rainfall deficit of 53.4% during June–August.
The geography of the crisis is important. Rayalaseema and southern Andhra Pradesh, already prone to water stress, have been hit particularly hard. The deficit threatens paddy, pulses, oilseeds, horticulture and fodder, while also weakening the reservoir storage needed for the coming rabi season. When drought strikes a State with major agricultural and horticultural output, its effects travel through supply chains: farm incomes fall, rural demand weakens, livestock owners face fodder shortages, and food processors confront higher procurement costs.
The State’s early declaration is appropriate. Waiting until harvest failure is complete would make relief less effective. But early declaration must now translate into early payment, credible crop-cutting surveys, insurance settlements and protection of vulnerable households.
The wider national risk
Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are not isolated cases. Maharashtra has also declared drought, while Telangana and Rajasthan have been flagged for assessment. The India Drought Monitor maintained by IIT Gandhinagar reported that around 52.5% of the country was under dry or drought conditions by mid-September; later estimates placed the figure as high as 70.6%.
The macroeconomic danger is food inflation. Kharif foodgrain acreage was 1.6% lower than the previous year as of October 5, with rice acreage down 3.5% and maize acreage down 2.9%. Reservoir storage was below both the previous year’s level and the 10-year seasonal average as of October 1. These indicators do not yet prove a nationwide production collapse, but they reduce the buffer available if the rabi season also disappoints.
The most vulnerable commodities are likely to be maize, pulses and rice in affected regions. Lower availability can raise input costs for poultry, livestock and food-processing firms before consumers see the full impact in retail prices. Policymakers should therefore monitor final kharif estimates, rabi sowing, reservoir levels and prices of sensitive food items rather than waiting for inflation to become visible.
Why El Niño is not an excuse?
El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have played a major role in disrupting this year’s monsoon. Strong El Niño conditions are expected to persist and intensify through the end of 2026, increasing the risk of further weather extremes.
But El Niño explains the trigger; it does not excuse weak preparedness. India has lived through repeated monsoon failures, including 2014 and 2015, yet drought management remains largely reactive. The country still treats drought mainly as a disaster to be compensated after crops fail, rather than as a recurring hydrological risk to be managed through watershed restoration, groundwater governance, crop planning and resilient rural infrastructure.
What the Centre must do?
The Centre’s first responsibility is to complete the inter-ministerial team’s assessment without delay and release assistance based on verified losses. Karnataka’s demand for substantially more than the ₹3,400 crore provided in an earlier drought episode is understandable given the reported scale of crop damage.
Relief should include:
- Immediate financial assistance to affected farmers, with simplified documentation and time-bound payment.
- Crop-insurance claims processed promptly, with transparent field verification and appeal mechanisms.
- Fodder camps, cattle-care support and drinking-water supply in severely affected taluks and mandals.
- Additional employment under rural works programmes to protect incomes during the lean agricultural period.
- Interest relief, loan restructuring and moratoria where repayment would force distress sales of land or livestock.
- Seed and input support for contingency cropping where the rabi season remains viable.
The Centre should also ensure that drought assistance is not used as a partisan bargaining tool. Federal disaster response works only when the criterion is need, not political alignment.
What the States must do?
Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh must treat this as a water-security emergency, not only a crop-loss event. That means prioritising drinking water, protecting livestock, mapping villages at risk and preventing unsustainable extraction from already stressed aquifers.
Groundwater is a central vulnerability. Central Ground Water Board data compiled in 2025 indicated that 26% of groundwater blocks in states including Karnataka were over-exploited, critical or semi-critical. Drought relief that relies overwhelmingly on borewells and tankers may provide short-term relief while accelerating long-term depletion.
Both States should combine immediate relief with durable measures:
What the States must do?
Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh must treat this as a water-security emergency, not only a crop-loss event. That means prioritising drinking water, protecting livestock, mapping villages at risk and preventing unsustainable extraction from already stressed aquifers.
Groundwater is a central vulnerability. Central Ground Water Board data compiled in 2025 indicated that 26% of groundwater blocks in states including Karnataka were over-exploited, critical or semi-critical. Drought relief that relies overwhelmingly on borewells and tankers may provide short-term relief while accelerating long-term depletion.
Both States should combine immediate relief with durable measures:
- Repair and desilt tanks, check dams, feeder channels and minor irrigation systems before the next monsoon.
- Promote drought-tolerant and locally suited crops rather than water-intensive cultivation in deficit zones.
- Regulate borewell extraction and meter groundwater use in over-exploited blocks.
- Expand watershed development, recharge structures and farm ponds with community oversight.
- Strengthen crop advisory services so farmers receive timely information on sowing windows, variety choice and moisture conservation.
- Use drought as an opportunity to redesign cropping patterns, especially where paddy or other high-water crops are being grown in naturally water-scarce regions.
A test of cooperative federalism
The drought report is ultimately a test of cooperative federalism. States are closest to the affected farmers and best placed to identify villages, crops and households in distress. The Centre controls the larger financial instruments and can coordinate food management, insurance, credit and long-term water investment. Neither level of government can manage this crisis alone.
The immediate priority is humane, fast relief. The longer-term priority is to reduce India’s exposure to monsoon failure. A 13% national deficit may sound manageable in an average year, but its impact becomes severe when it is concentrated in already water-stressed regions, arrives during critical crop stages and coincides with depleted reservoirs and groundwater.
India cannot control El Niño, but it can control preparedness. The Centre must compensate losses fairly and quickly; Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh must protect farmers, livestock and drinking-water supplies; and both governments must invest in the tanks, watersheds, groundwater discipline and climate-resilient agriculture that will determine whether the next weak monsoon becomes another emergency—or a manageable shock.
