Editorial-07/06/2026
Missed call: On India and the southwest monsoon
Why in News?
The editorial discusses concerns over the Southwest Monsoon 2026, after forecasts indicated the possibility of a below-normal monsoon (around 90% of Long Period Average - LPA) amid emerging El Niño conditions. The monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June 2026, later than the normal onset date of 1 June.
Core Argument of the Editorial
The editorial argues that India cannot afford to treat a deficient monsoon as merely a meteorological event because it has implications for:
- Agriculture and food security
- Rural livelihoods
- Inflation management
- Groundwater sustainability
- Climate resilience
The government must adopt a proactive strategy rather than waiting for rainfall deficits to translate into an agrarian crisis.
Importance of Southwest Monsoon for India
1. Agricultural Backbone
- Nearly 50% of India's net sown area remains rain-fed.
- Kharif crops such as rice, pulses, cotton and oilseeds depend heavily on monsoon rainfall.
Impact of Deficient Rainfall
- Reduced sowing area
- Lower crop yields
- Distress among farmers
- Increased demand for irrigation
2. Water Security
The monsoon replenishes:
- Reservoirs
- Rivers
- Groundwater aquifers
- Wetlands
A weak monsoon can worsen water scarcity, especially in semi-arid regions.
3. Inflation and Economy
Poor monsoons often lead to:
- Food inflation
- Rising vegetable and cereal prices
- Reduced rural demand
- Pressure on fiscal resources
The monsoon remains a critical determinant of macroeconomic stability.
Key Concerns Highlighted
El Niño Threat
What is El Niño?
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that often weakens the Indian monsoon.
Historical Examples
| Year |
Impact |
| 2002 |
Severe drought |
| 2009 |
Deficient monsoon |
| 2015 |
Below-normal rainfall |
The editorial warns that a similar pattern could emerge if El Niño strengthens.
Groundwater Stress
India extracts more groundwater than any other country.
A deficient monsoon may lead to:
- Over-extraction of groundwater
- Falling water tables
- Increased energy use for pumping
- Long-term ecological stress
Climate Change and Monsoon Variability
Climate change is causing:
- Erratic rainfall distribution
- Longer dry spells
- Extreme rainfall events
- Flash floods alongside drought conditions
Thus, "normal rainfall" no longer guarantees agricultural security.
What Should Government Do?
Immediate Measures
Ministry of Agriculture
- Promote drought-resistant crop varieties
- Ensure seed availability
- Expand crop insurance coverage
Ministry of Jal Shakti
- Reservoir management
- Groundwater recharge initiatives
- Water-use efficiency programs
Ministry of Consumer Affairs
- Monitor food prices
- Maintain buffer stocks
- Prevent hoarding
The editorial calls for coordinated action on a "war footing."
Long-Term Reforms
Climate-Resilient Agriculture
- Millets promotion
- Precision farming
- Micro-irrigation
Water Governance
- Aquifer mapping
- Watershed development
- Demand-side water management
Forecasting Improvements
- AI-based weather prediction
- Localized monsoon forecasts
- Early warning systems
Conclusion
The editorial underscores that India must move from monsoon dependence to monsoon resilience. While forecasts may be uncertain, strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness can reduce the vulnerability of millions whose livelihoods remain tied to the rhythm of the southwest monsoon.
UPSC Mains Question
"The southwest monsoon is not merely a weather phenomenon but a determinant of India's economic and social stability." Discuss in the context of climate change and increasing monsoon variability. (15 Marks)
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