20/03/2026
Fire and fury: On the ill-conceived war on Iran
Introduction
The ongoing military offensive by the United States and Israel against Iran, often framed in terms of “fire and fury,” reflects a dangerous escalation in West Asia. Far from being a carefully calibrated strategy, the war appears ill-conceived, lacking clear objectives, legal legitimacy, and a viable endgame.
Context and Background
The conflict escalated with large-scale strikes under “Operation Epic Fury,” targeting Iran’s nuclear, missile, and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with missile attacks across the region, widening the conflict into a multi-front confrontation involving several West Asian countries. The crisis has also disrupted global oil supply chains, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, raising economic and strategic concerns worldwide.
Crucially, the attacks were launched even as diplomatic efforts, including Oman-mediated talks, showed signs of progress—indicating a premature abandonment of negotiations.
Why the War is III-Conceived
- Lack of Clear Objectives: The stated goals—ranging from dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme to regime change—are expansive and ambiguous. Such shifting objectives risk turning a limited conflict into a prolonged and unwinnable war.
- Questionable Legitimacy: The offensive has been criticized as a violation of international law, with no clear UN mandate or immediate provocation justifying such large-scale use of force.
- Disregard for Diplomacy: Launching attacks amid ongoing negotiations undermines trust in diplomatic processes and sets a precedent that military force can override dialogue.
- Civilian and Humanitarian Costs: Early reports indicate civilian casualties and damage to non-military infrastructure, highlighting the human cost of the conflict and raising ethical concerns.
- Risk of Regional Conflagration: The war has already expanded beyond Iran, drawing in proxy groups and neighbouring states. There is a real danger of a full-scale regional war engulfing West Asia.
- Economic Fallout: Disruptions in oil and gas production and shipping routes have triggered global price volatility, affecting energy security, especially for import-dependent countries like India.
Strategic Miscalculations
- Underestimating Iran’s Response: Iran’s retaliatory capabilities through missiles and regional proxies ensure that the conflict cannot remain contained.
- Overconfidence in Military Solutions: History, particularly the Iraq war, shows that military intervention rarely achieves long-term political stability.
- Ignoring Second-Order Effects: Escalation risks include radicalization, refugee crises, and destabilization of global markets.
Global and Indian Implications
- For the World: The conflict threatens global peace, weakens international institutions, and deepens geopolitical rivalries.
- For India:
- Energy security risks due to oil price spikes
- Threats to Indian diaspora in the Gulf
- Strategic balancing challenges between the U.S., Israel, and Iran
Way Forward: Resolving the Iran Conflict
A sustainable resolution to the crisis requires a shift from military escalation to diplomatic engagement, backed by multilateral cooperation and regional stability mechanisms.
1. Immediate Ceasefire and De-escalation: All parties, especially United States, Israel, and Iran, must agree to an immediate ceasefire. Confidence-building measures such as halting missile strikes and troop mobilization are essential to prevent further escalation.
2. Revival of Nuclear Diplomacy: Re-engagement with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or a revised framework is crucial. Diplomatic channels should be reopened to address concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme through verification and monitoring.
3. Strengthening Multilateral Institutions: Global bodies like the United Nations and International Atomic Energy Agency should play a central role in mediation, conflict resolution, and ensuring compliance with international norms.
4. Regional Security Dialogue: West Asian countries, including Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, must be part of a structured regional dialogue platform. This would help address mutual security concerns and reduce proxy conflicts.
5. Protecting Global Energy Security: Ensuring the safety of critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz is vital. International cooperation is needed to maintain uninterrupted oil and gas supply chains.
6. Humanitarian Assistance and Civilian Protection: All parties must adhere to international humanitarian law. Aid corridors should be established to support affected populations, with oversight from global agencies.
7. India’s Balanced Diplomacy: India should continue its strategic autonomy by maintaining balanced relations with all stakeholders. It can play a constructive role by advocating dialogue, ensuring energy security, and safeguarding its diaspora in the region.
8. Long-term Confidence-Building Measures
- Military transparency and communication hotlines
- Non-aggression pacts
- Reduction of proxy warfare
Conclusion
The “fire and fury” approach to Iran reflects the perils of militarized foreign policy driven by short-term strategic calculations rather than long-term stability. Without a clear objective or exit strategy, the war risks becoming another prolonged conflict with devastating regional and global consequences. Diplomacy, not destruction, remains the only sustainable path forward.
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